Market Radar

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Rail Budget 2015




Rail Budget 2015: Fare hike unlikely; stress on Make in 

India and Cleanliness





Just a day before the Narendra Modi government is set to unveil the Rail Budget, sources

 say that its focus will be on attracting investment, modernisation of trains through Wifi and 


transparency in railway systems. Sources say that a lot of suggestions from the Prime


 Minister's office have been incorporated in the Budget. While a fare hike is unlikely across 


the board, a cess for cleanliness cannot be ruled out. As high speed corridors cannot come 


out of the railway resources only, the focus is likely to be on joint ventures and Foreign 


Direct Investment in the Budget. As per sources, the emphasis of the government is to build 


a Public private partnership for raising money. NGOs, corporate sectors can advertise on 


the coaches of railways to generate more revenue. Railway sources: 59,000 coaches to be 


converted into vacuum toilet, a technology that's available in air planes. Cleanliness of 


stations and bio toilets is likely to be the thrust of 'swachh' (clean) railways. Railway Minister 


Suresh Prabhu is likely to make announcements of a series of green initiatives, focus on 


cleanliness and build an interactive customer portal for direct feedback from passengers. 


Prabhu is likely to emphasise upon finishing the existing projects. To ensure safety and


 security, a proposal to install CCTVs in coaches and on stations is likely to be presented. It 


is likely that lesser number of new trains will be announced in comparison to the previous 


budgets of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government. According to sources, 


the minister feels that announcement should be done after study of feasibility and economic 


viability. Sources also say that 2016 onwards, only those Linke Hofmann Busch (LHB) 


coaches will rolled out which have bio toilets. The old coaches will have green toilets. 


Stations which don't see too many trains will see better utilisation of the space for skill 


development programme of the Prime Minister. The focus of the Budget will be on Make in 


India so indigenous technology will be pushed, claim sources.










ABG Shipyard

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Swing Trading v/s Day Trading








Swing Trading v/s Day Trading

Do you relate to this conversation with your broker over the phone? 

Broker: Good Morning Sir, we are recommending to buy ABC stock at CMP for an expected return of 50-60% over a year. 

You: Why do you think so? What is the rationale for it to appreciate by 50-60% in a year? 

Broker: Sir, the fundamentals of the company are very strong. It's a debt-free company. It is expanding its production capacity like anything. Next quarter onwards its sales and profits will increase multi-folds etc. 

P.S. - This HNI investor and a group of investors also has a stake in it, and they are buying shares from market. 

You: okay, seems interesting. 

Broker: Should I buy some shares for you? 

You: Yes, please buy XXX quantity of shares of ABC stock at current price. 

Same day… after a few hours

Broker: Congratulations Sir, the ABC stock that we had bought in the morning is up by 5%. Shall we sell it and book solid profits

You: But, you had a 50-60% appreciation target in a year. What about that? 

Broker: Our long term target remains intact. But why miss an opportunity to book such big intraday gains. The markets around the globe are so volatile you never what happens tomorrow. A bird in hand is better than two in bush… 

You: Okay so what do you suggest finally? 

Broker: Lets book profits

You: Fine, go ahead and sell all of ABC stock. 

And that's how most of you are introduced to the concept of day trading

There isn't anything wrong in day trading at all. The problem is with not making a conscious decision to day trade and get swayed into it by emotions. 

Most of the times people are lured into it by pep talk from brokers or by hearing someone make huge intraday gains. The media also plays a crucial role into luring people to day trade. 

However, rather than blaming anyone else, it would be better if we look objectively at our own self and the decisions that we make. You will find that it isyour own greed to make money quickly which draws you into day trading. All others merely act as facilitators while your greed is the real driver. 

You can use others greed and fear to decide you want to be in which market, what stocks to be in and what time frame to trade. But your own greed and fear should be kept far away locked into a vault when you are making such decisions. I know it is difficult but that's what great traders/investors do. 

By keeping the emotions at bay you can allow yourself to think rationally with an objective frame of mind. And that is what's required when you have to make a conscious choice between swing trading and day trading. 

Now let me take you through both these styles of trading. 

The first and foremost thing that comes to my mind while choosing between the two styles is the level of efforts required. Efforts not only in terms of knowledge and understanding the nuances of these styles of trading but also the time that you can dedicate during the day. 

Day trading requires you to sit in front of screen and monitor your positions regularly. It takes a lot of time and effort to first build up positions, manage them and finally get out of those positions. It takes an altogether different level of dedication when you are day trading. And even after doing all this it isn't necessary that you will be profitable at it as it is merely a requirement for day trading. 

Ask yourself this question whether you can devote so much time with your existing occupation. Will you be able to manage both the things at the same time? While you may make some money initially by working out some fast messaging to your broker or on the mobile portal that he has given. But eventually either of these, your work or your trading will suffer. And most often it is your day trading that will suffer because that's not what you rely upon for your daily bread and butter. 

On the other hand a swing trader can devote a couple of hours after his office by end of the day when he is relaxing at home to study a group of stocks that he may be interested in. He can also study a bigger universe of stock over weekends. 

The capital requirement for day trading will be higher if the trader is doing it for a living. Though he will be able to use leverage to take positions against his capital, but he will also have to keep a contingency fund to cover atleast 6 months of his household expenses. 

The swing trader whose primary source of income isn't trading can start by allocating a small portion of his savings to trade in the markets. Once he gains confidence by trading in the markets he can increase the capital allocation and dedicate more time towards trading. 

Day trading aims at capturing minor trends during the day so the profitexpectation per trade can be anywhere in between 0.5% to 2%. Based on this a day trader has to take a certain number of trades which can be anywhere in from 1 to 'n' number of trades. A day trader will also have to consider the transaction costs that he has to incur on these trades. 

A swing trader aims at capturing short and intermediate term trends that last from a couple of days to a few weeks. His profit expectation per trade can be anywhere in between 6% to 20%. The number of trades that he can take will be limited based on his capital allocated for trading. 

Thus one should consider all of the above factors before venturing into day trading or swing trading. Most people will chose swing trading because it allows them to continue with their existing occupation and trade simultaneously. Someone else would chose swing trading simply because it fits their risk profile. However, one should not mistakenly assume that swing trading is easy, alwaysprofitable and doesn't require efforts. 

And most important of all whether you choose to day trade, swing trade or not trade at all it should be 'your' conscious decision after considering all the factors involved. 














How you can become a successful Trader


A successful trader is one who consistently makes money from the markets irrespective of market conditions. And for you to make money on a consistent basis it is very important to follow these two rules.

"Rule No.1 is never lose money.
 Rule No.2 is never forget rule number one." 

I cannot agree anymore on this investing philosophy by Warren Buffett. The world thinks of it as one of Buffett's mantra for success but I consider it as a cardinal principle of trading. Once you forget Rule no.1 you will soon find yourself on the dark road which leads nowhere and coming back from there is next to impossible. You know already how difficult it is to recover from a drawdown.

Have you ever thought why people forget such a basic and simple rule?

There are a couple of reasons behind it. First amongst them is lack of awareness and importance of this rule. Each and every market participant knows this rule subconsciously but somehow everyone does not accept its importance. Even if they understand the importance then they don't know how to put this rule in to practice. 

Nobody wants to lose money in the markets but you and I know it very well that every trade/investment we make will not be profitable. For every gainer there will be a few losers as well. Just because you will come across losers while trading/investing doesn't mean that you should avoid it completely. The key here is to ensure that your losers doesn't lose more money than your gainers make. You should be able to manage a balance between the risk and rewards. After all that's what trading is all about, isn't it?

Last but not the least is to have these 3 competitive advantage under your belt.
  • Informational Advantage - It refers to knowing more than the other guy knows but obviously within the legal limits.
  • Analytical Advantage - It refers to the skills required to process the information that you have access to.
  • Behavioral Advantage - Finally, the most important of them is what you do after you have processed the information. That's where the real money is made. You have to act more rationally than others.
There is an inverse relationship between the informational advantage and the time horizon you trade/invest with. As your time horizon becomes shorter and shorter the criticality of informational advantage increases. For example HFT or High Frequency Traders pay a hefty price just to keep their servers closer to the exchange's servers. So that they get the Bid-Ask quotes a few milliseconds before others. 

You can beat the informational advantage by building up an analytical advantage for yourself and by avoiding the time horizons where the informational advantage is against you. We at Profit Hunter work towards providing this analytical advantage to our readers and subscribers. I am currently working on something which will provide you with an analytical edge over others especially in the short term trading arena. You can look forward to communication from me in the coming week.

When I was working on this, I noticed that to succeed in trading, having an analytical edge isn't enough. Having behavioral edge is also equally important. And that's where most retail traders fail, they do not have access to tools that give them the behavioral edge. 

I took this as a personal challenge. 

First to empower the retail traders with an analytical edge and second to develop tools along with our technology team to give you a behavioral edge. 

The Profit Triggers guide has been downloaded by 24,088 unique readers so far, is already solving my purpose of giving an analytical edge. Those of you who have downloaded this guide have already received an invitation by me to activate the portfolio tracker service. I have specially designed a section in the portfolio tracker along with our technology team which caters to traders needs and gives them this behavioral edge. 

Now let me show you how this section of the portfolio tracker works.

Step 1: Add Equities Trading Portfolio

Once you login to the Portfolio Tracker on the equitymaster.com you will get an option to add new equities trading portfolio. When you click on the Go button a page which looks like the image below opens up.

Adding Equities Trading Portfolio

Source: Equitymaster.com

You will have to add details like name of the portfolio, its status and exchange. You will also have to fill in the notional amount you wish to allocate to trading. You will have to consider factors like your current financial status, risk appetite etc. before you allocate a portion of your total wealth to trading. Remember, that trading should only be 'a part' of your overall asset allocation. You can also refer to the Equitymaster Asset Allocation Guide before you dedicate an amount to trading. 

Once you have decided your allocation to trading you have to decide the percentage of your starting account balance that you are willing to risk per trade. This fix % can be anything from 0.5% to 1%. One can start on the lower end and as one gains confidence in trading one can move higher. You can refer to one of my earlier article that I wrote on position sizing to know about this in detail.

You can fill in the remaining details on brokerage and STT applicable to you and complete this step.

Step 2: Add Equities Transaction(s) 

As soon as you fill the name of the stock you want to buy, you will get its current market price pre-filled in the Buy Price column. When you fill in the details about the stoploss it will automatically calculate the quantity that you should buy andsuggest that number in the Buy Quantity column. You are free to overwrite it and enter a quantity which is more or less than the one mentioned in the box. It's completely upto you. But if you were to follow the fixed % loss rule on each trade then you should be buying quantity which is suggested here.

Once you have filled the quantity, the brokerage and STT will automatically get calculated and fill their respective boxes. 

You will see a box titled entry notes. Here you are supposed to write 'your' own logic and reasoning for buying this stock in brief. I have written my reasons for picking a stock that I had recommended in economictimes.com

Adding Equities Transaction(s)

Source: Equitymaster.com

Step 3: Check Holdings Report

As soon as you 'submit' the detailsthe holding report page opens up. This is a summary of stocks that you are currently holding. Key fields to watch here are the Buy value which is inclusive of brokerage and STT. The gain/loss is calculated by deducting the buy value from the market value. 

Also note the titles above the table. The starting account balance is the total capital you had allocated for trading. The current profit/loss shows the actual realized profit booked so far on your trades. This is zero as of now as we haven't closed this position so far. The current account balance is the sum of the starting account balance and current profit/loss (realized). You can see all these values across all the reports. You can get to know the mark to market gain/loss value in the grand total row below the Gain/Loss column. 

Checking Holdings Report

Source: Equitymaster.com

Step 3: Square off Transaction

The next step is to square you're your trades. Once you select the stock you want to square off or sell after you have bought, a page opens up like the one I have illustrated below. You can enter the rate at which you sold and the quantity you want to sell. This time again the brokerage and STT will be calculated and prefilled in their respective boxes.

Squaring off Transaction

Source: Equitymaster.com

But! Hold on a second before hitting 'Square Off' button. 

There's a notes column with 'Add' mentioned below it. Once you click it a screen pops up which looks like this. 

Making Exit & Trade Notes

Source: Equitymaster.com

You have to fill in 'your' Exit Notes and Trade Notes. You can add comments about exiting the stock. Just like you enter your reasons for entering the stock you can now write reasons for exiting the stock. Trade notes are your overall observation about the trade, the lessons you have learned from it, things you would like to improve etc. If everything has gone as per plan you can pat yourself on the back! ☺ 

Step 4: Check Transaction History

Now you can check the transaction history of the stock that you have sold. The gain/loss figure shown here is adjusted off brokerage and STT on both buying and selling transactions. So this is the net profit you have actually earned on the entire transaction. 

There are a few other taxes and cost apart from brokerage and STT as well. Most of them are charged on the total turnover so you can add them up and increase the STT % by that value. 


Checking Transaction History

Source: Equitymaster.com

Step 4: Check Profit & Loss Report

Let's come to the profit & loss report now. This report now shows you the sum total of all the net gains realized so far. Notice the current profit/loss figure in the picture below. Now it shows Rs 1,708 which is the actual profit we realized out of the above transaction. 

Checking Profit & Loss Report
Source: Equitymaster.com

Step 5: Check Risk Reward Report

The risk reward report shows what level of risk you are taking to earn the profit. In our case the reward/share was Target price (160) - Entry Price (125) = 35. And the risk was Entry price (125) - Stoploss Price (105) = 20. Hence our Reward v/s Risk is 35/20 = 1.75. Thus on 50 shares bought we are taking a risk of Rs 1000 to earn a profit of 1750 which is reasonable. Take note that the expected reward does not take brokerage and STT in to consideration. 

Checking Risk Reward Report
Source: Equitymaster.com

You can check this report as soon as you are about to enter a trade and check whether it makes business sense or not whether the reward is sufficient enough for the risk that you are taking. I would suggest a minimum ratio of 1.5 for entering any trade. 

Step 6: Check Trading Journal

Every successful trader manages and more importantly reviews his trading journal on a regular basis. That's how you monitor your behavior and keep it under check over a period of time. The picture below shows the entry notes, exit notes and trade notes that you had entered during the transaction. You can refer the journal anytime from entering the trade, during the trade and after the trade as well. 

Checking Trading Journal

Source: Equitymaster.com

I know you will find this tedious and exhaustive in the beginning. But when you start using this tool while trading and see your trading account growing in size you will realize the importance of this tool. And then there's nothing that can stop you from becoming A Successful Trader











RICHA INDUSTRIES LTD



Today company has made following announcement to the BSE:




Richa Industries Ltd has received approval from the Research, Designs and Standards Organization (RDSO) of the ministry of Railways for fabrication and supply of steel bridge girders of the Indian Railways.
The registration in the approved list of RDSO will be valid for two years from now.



The RDSO approval has given room to Richa Industries to enter into new segment. With the help of this approval, Richa is now eligible to participate in tenders of Indian Railways which is an initial step to venture into new segment.



Commenting on this, Dr Sandeep Gupta, Joint MD, Richa Industries Ltd said, "Getting RDSO approval is indeed a great achievement for us. This approval is an endorsement for Richa's commitment to quality and indicates our potential and world-class capabilities. Besides, The Railways have an aggressive plan for major development in the sector and lot of projects are coming up. Working in partnership, Richa's expertise will support in the development in a major way".



Under the Min. of Railways of India, RDSO functions as a technical adviser and consultant in respect of design and standardization of railway equipment and problems related to railway construction, operation and maintenance.



Being a premier organization in the PEB sector, Richa has also recently received the internationally recognized OHSAS 18001:2007 certification by Indian Register Quality System (IRQS)



What this announcement means is that beside the PEB sector boom on back of warehousing and Make in India demand, Richa Industries will also participate in the modernization and development of the Indian Railways.

On a lighter note, Richa Industries has now become a proxy-play to the Narendra Modi led government and it's great plans of development. So if we trust Narendra Modi to do well, Richa Industries automatically becomes a strong-buy.